Entertainment For Lively Minds
Who's for a monkey on the Spaniards? World Cup betting opens
Posted by PaddyH on 2 June 2010 - 12:39pm.
Only a week or so to go befoe the World Cup and I have been looking at the odds from Paddy Power.
Spain 4/1
Brazil 9/2
Argentina 7/1
England 7/1
Holland 10/1
Italy 14/1
Germany 14/1
France 18/1
Portugal 25/1
Ivory Coast 40/1
Bar
First impressions: Who really thinks England are equal third favourites for the tournament and that really is stunningly good value on defending champions Italy and perennial knock out specialists Germany.
- More from PaddyH.
- Login or register to post comments
-
Holland
at 10 / 1 are a very good value bet. I think they have a strong chance of breaking their WC duck this time around.
Deja Vu
Well, they had a great chance of winning the last European Champtionship, before they went typically Holland-esque.
They need Steve McClaren...
to sprinkle some of his managerial fairy dust over the team.
That's where my money is
Holland have a strong team, squad and manager.
Good Value
I can't look past Spain or Brazil to win it, so it might just be worth taking a punt on both - at those prices, you'd certainly come out of it well.
England are always short-priced because lots of people catch patriotic fever and back them.
Argentina 7-1 though? Great players, clueless manager, has he ever even played the game?
I'd have to agree that Holland at 10-1 is the pick of the bunch if you choose to ignore the first two.
I don't really understand
this sort of thing, but are England 7/1 and thus third favourites because people think they are 3rd most likely to win? Or, are they 7/1 and thus third favourites because the bookies don't want to risk getting hammered by hundreds of thousands of people putting vast sums of money on England at the more realistic price of 15/1?
Bookies' odds
England are offered at 7-1 because a) in this case it is limiting bookies' losses if they win and b) because a large number of people have already backed them and thus to limit losses, bookies give a lower price.
I strongly fancy the Italians despite their age. Argentina are no more third favourites than my former Sunday team and both struggle with tactically inept leadership from the sideline.
You can also get odds on Crouch as the Golden Boot - every tournament has a surprise, could it be the big robot dancer?
I'm supporting Honduras.......Go Hondo go!
Absolutely correct, but the media will quote them as 'third favourites' nevertheless.
Realistic odds for England?
20/1 to reach the final and 32/1 to win it.
I'm getting increasingly annoyed (Henry Winter) with the recurring use of the word 'experience' as if losing repeatedly at tournaments is a good thing.
The average amount of caps for the first game v. USA may, if David James is picked, be 60!!!!!!
What do all these players have in common.....
Hurst, Peters, Ball, Gascoigne, Lineker, Beardsley, Des Walker, Paul Parker, David Platt?
Answer: (a) they were all part of England's three most successful World Cups, and (b) all went into their respective tournaments with absolutely NO EXPERIENCE at all.
'Experience' being a good thing in a World Cup is as spurious a notion as 'longevity' being a good thing in pop music.
Madonna's rubbish and she's as old as the hills.
Experience
The Italians and the Germans might beg to differ, and they're generally better at World Cups than England (13 finals between them). Of the starting 11 in the last final, Italy fielded no-one under the age of 27.
>
That's fine, but the English 'experience' is not the German or Italy 'experience' and is made up, since 2000, of:
poor,
poor and weak-willed,
poor,
abject/dire/awful and,
did not qualify.
Leading scorer
Yes, there always seems to be an outsider coming at or close to the top of leading goalscorers. (eg Milosovic, when he was totally shite at Villa, or Suker, roobish at Arsenal, didn't Klose do well last time?). Especially if there are a whipping boy in the group.
Avoid Torres, Rooney, Ronaldo, Messi etc. Think Nicklas Bendtner, Diego Forlan, Drogba might be value, one of the German strikers...
Italy look good value
But on a glass half full note I would say get on the spreads and sell Argentina.... 7/1 is well overpriced given the potential of Kaka to get injured and Maradona to implode. Without Kaka they are a very different team.
Kaka?
He's Brazilian.
In March I spent a week in South America, and the view amongst my South American friends - mainly Chilean and Uruguayan - seemed to be that Brazil have their strongest squad in years, and will stroll through the tournament.
Brazil get physical
I thought I was missing something...
Fraser, isn't it the case that Brazil are big and strong and a bit tasty this time around as well as being skillful and sambatastic?
Well...
I saw 'em in a friendly a few month back and they were none of the above, but they do tend to peak at the right time. Unlike, say, England.
If I were a betting man - which I'm not - I'd put a sovereign...
on the Italians.
I'm putting
a fiver on The Ivory Coast at 40-1, I don't think anyone bar the Spanish and those damn Yankees are showing real form and an African country just could nick it this time.
new
Cant believe nobody has mentioned Portugal.Ronaldo is playing out of his skin with Real and at 25 to 1 I will have my tenner on them. Again I cant see why England are 3rd favourites. Are they the same odds in say France or Spain or elsewhere on the continent? can anyone enlighten me
Brazil don't concede many goals
and the team that defends the best tend to win. i think Brazil or the Netherlands.
Argentina
Because (obv) they have some more than useful players, including possibly the world's number one in Messi (imagined, rather amusingly I thought, as the sum of Chris de Burgh plus a young Robert de Niro in the Sunday Times World Cup supplement).
Also because, unlike the prepared-to-an-inch-of-their-lives other top teams, Maradona probably doesn't even know himself what his strategy will be, so second guessing it is futile.
7/1? Not at all unattractive.
England? You just never know. I will say that Don Fabio has given them the best chance possible of bettering Italia '90, with the possible exception of a certain Special One (Roi Hodzioni, natch).
Hold on a minute, Italy at 14/1? *heads off to Bill Hill with £1 burning hole in pocket*
Germany haven't had spectacular form
but I would have thought a lazy twenty on the defending champions would be a reasonable investment.
defending champions?
?
Oh Wombat's Piss,
I meant the italians. Wrong 14-1 shot. Shouldn't post off the back of no sleep and too much coffee. I might as well go away and flush my money on the Germans as an act of penance.
Winner/ Top scorer doubles/ England destined for third?
Brazil to win & Fabiano to be top scorer double 25-1, anyone?
Good winners/ top scorer doubles here
http://www.paddypower.com/football/international-football/world-cup-bett...
Paintyface, there's a good tournament predictor with England backed by those outside of Britain to finish third, beating Maradona's men in the play-off., here
http://www.castrolfootball.com/predictor/tournamentpredictor/
If I was going to bet
I'd avoid putting money on outsiders, because the statistics tell us that outsiders don't win the World Cup.
The statistics also tell us that there will probably be at least three European sides in the last four (I think 1962, 1970 and 2002 are the only post-war exceptions to this rule).
The statistics also tell us that most folk will have stopped reading this post by now ; )
I think Its wide open
but the usual suspects will end up in the final so thats Brazil, Italy, Argentina or Germany of these Italy is the best priced but my tip is Argentina they have the best players the only fly in the ointment is Maradona but if he picks the right team I think they could go all the way my dark horse is Chile.
Top Scorer given their group I think David Villa deserves his favourite status but if Spain get knocked out in the last 16 or quarters as I expect possibly Luis Fabiano of Brazil