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Who really knows what's going on in the world?

Merv's picture

I consider myself a fairly well-educated kind of guy - I have a law degree and am qualified as both a barrister and a chartered accountant, I also know a bit about politics from my History A' Level and I read the 'quality' dailies online dip into the Economist occasionally at work.

However, I've always had the feeling that I don't really understand how the world works and what's really going on. Even though I probably have an above-average understanding of recent events such as the Sub-Prime Mortgage crisis and I could just about explain what short-selling is and how futures are traded, I always get the feeling that I am trying to catch up on big stories like the Greek crisis and the German bail-out - kind of like I missed the first instalment where all the basic facts and issues were explained and everyone is carrying on without me speaking a language I don't completely understand.

Am I alone in this? If not, how do other people keep up?

1

You are not alone

I consider myself fairly bright - despite being involved in the finance industry (pensions) for about 25 years.

Yet I don't get all that stuff to do with futures/swaps/options - never have. I rely on economists to explain it all. I even struggle with currency movements and whether that's good or bad.

This is not like a dentist knowing nothing about teeth, my work hasn't suffered because I am piig ignorant (geddit?).

I am told that the Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson is good. One day I might read it to see if helps. Then perhaps I can join in conversations.

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Austin | 21 May 2010 - 2:30am

You don't need to read it

the TV series/DVD is vg ...e.g. this one which the FPO and I have watched about 3 times so far ...

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SpaceBoy | 22 May 2010 - 10:40am

Does anyone really know what's going on in the world?

I would suggest not, although plenty pretend that they do.

Personally I haven't a clue... I am hoping a flash of inspiration hits me on my death bed.

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Patrick Crowther | 21 May 2010 - 8:31am

I think most of us are in the same boat.

World leaders,monarchs,religious heads all have advisors around them to help them understand & digest all that's going on as they need to know. Everyone is the same we only have a certain capacity for information. That's why this site works so well - it's impossible to keep up with all the matters covered in the Word let alone the world!

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Lunaman | 21 May 2010 - 6:49am

Yesterday is the new today

I'm very good on what's happening in 1958.

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ranger | 21 May 2010 - 6:52am

Finally somebody admits it

Well done Merv. I definitely feel the same.

And Patrick is right: plenty of people pretend they know what's going on. I suppose no-one wants to appear stupid.

It would be great if we had a big amnesty for things that we don't understand. Politics is confusing. The economy is confusing. It's all confusing.

If all the people who say they know what's going on actually KNEW what was going on, then nothing bad would ever happen because they would always know about it in advance.

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Stephen Merrick | 21 May 2010 - 7:16am

Does it matter?

You clearly aren't alone but does it matter. Why should you have more knowledge of how the economy of a banana republic is going to affect the sales of kites in Texas than you do of, say, the independent record labels in Wisconsin in the 60's? If you need to know for work you perhaps should or if you're really interested then fine. The good thing is that these days you should be able to achieve some sort of understanding of just about any matter by sitting at computer for a couple of days.

1
JohnW | 21 May 2010 - 7:16am

Couldn't agree more

Often - usually about 3am - I feel myself in a sense of near panic about all the things that I do not know about. All the things that might happen. All the things I can't control.

On the financial front, although I do understand the very basic premise of derivatives, short-selling and the like - I'm not sure I could explain how Goldman Sachs, say, is able to make so much money from doing these things. I mean who's paying them and where are these people/institutions getting their money?

It's a comfort of sorts that actually no-one including our "leaders" know two tenths of fuck-all about anything either. Although that is not really much comfort.

It seems the internet and mobile devices and the instantness of communication means that misinformation and disinformation spread as quickly as the "truth". "News" is always portrayed in sensationalistic and reductive ways. So - now - after so many boy cried wolf scenarios - I think we have had our sense of judgment about what is serious and what is not eroded.

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Sheev | 21 May 2010 - 8:52am

All is chaos.

Control an illusion.

1
Pencilsqueezer | 21 May 2010 - 7:59am

That's about the size of it

Embrace the chaos

Love not knowing

Go to Latitude( sorry got a bit carried away there)

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Mark P | 21 May 2010 - 8:22am

I'm with you.

In a quantum sense nothing is real.
Turn off your mind, relax, float downstream...

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Adman | 21 May 2010 - 3:33pm

I think my confusion is less about

what's going on and more about what the implications are. I know what short selling is but until this week, had never knowingly heard of 'naked short selling' as banned by Germany. A quick trip to Wikipedia puts me straight on that, although I'm still confused about the difference between liquidity and fungibility.

However, I don't have the faintest idea about what the real impact of this might be. Or whether the €400b+ fund to support the € through the Greek crisis is enough. Or whether the eurozone really should adopt the controls proposed by Germany, which is an export led economy unlike many other EU countries. Not a clue.

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Mark JF | 21 May 2010 - 8:25am

Don't agree with the Love not knowing

but a wise man knows how little he knows.I think I'll have a little lie down now.

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Pencilsqueezer | 21 May 2010 - 8:28am

Merv, you've nailed it.

Absolutely.

That's how I feel most of the time. Perhaps explains why I always take the easy way out and make lame jokes about everything as some sort of defence mechanism.

What is short selling? Not, I imagine, a sale of the briefer trouser...

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Beezer | 21 May 2010 - 8:39am

It goes something like this (1 - 2 - 3 - 4):

1) Borrow 100 shares worth £1 each from someone.
2) Sell the shares - you've got £100.
3) Wait for the shares to go down in value.
4) Buy 100 shares at 90p = £90 spent.
5) You're £10 better off than you were before you borrowed the shares.
6) Return the shares to the person you borrowed them from.

This is a simplified version; there are dealing costs and various rules but this is the basic principle.

Naked short selling is the same except you don't actually make sure you've borrowed the shares in the first place, so you're selling something you neither own nor have any title to.

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Mark JF | 21 May 2010 - 9:04am

What happens...

once you've done No. 2, No. 3 doesn't happen as expected - the shares go up in value - and you get a phone call saying, "Can I have my shares back, please - I want to sell them because the price has gone up and I can make a tidy profit on my original investment"?

And what's in it for the lender? Why would anyone hand over their shares to someone else to trade with? Isn't that what the actual shareholders buy them for in the first place?

And how can the borrower sell them without owning them?

Yours,
Confused of Cadiz.

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Archie Valparaiso | 21 May 2010 - 10:18am

This is when you make a loss.

It famously happened when Porsche and VW were in takeover talks last year. Someone went short on one of the shares and got it totally, 100% wrong - losing millions in the process. Lenders are wary of this as they might not get their shares back so they'll require guarantees before they lend them. There are complex rules about this sort of thing (e.g. the exact date the share is to be returned, who benefits from any dividend payments during the loan period etc etc) and it is perfectly legal. You might have a view about the morality of it, though...

The received wisdom is that short selling is speculation (= not necessarily bad) as no one loses real money except the short seller if it goes wrong. The lender is obviously sitting on a share worth less than it was before he lent it but he hasn't lost any cash money; he's simply taken a view that the value won't change too much during the loan period to affect him badly.

In the example above, if the lender bought the shares at 80p he's still sitting on a profit. The person who bought them at £1 is sitting on a book loss which he might take (if he thought the shares would drop further) or he could wait for them to recover. His problem will be if his auditor asks him to revalue his assets and he has to write off the 10p difference, which comes out of profits.

Naked short selling is closer to the bone and has been linked to manipulation, which is illegal.

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Mark JF | 21 May 2010 - 11:30am

Ah

Is anyone else getting a mental image of George Cole as Flash Harry?

Thanks for the explanations, Mark.

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Beezer | 21 May 2010 - 11:31am

There is One who knows

And he knows that 1975 was the High Water Mark of Pop/Rock/Etc.

He knows "Smoke From a Distant Fire" by the Sanford Townsend Band is a work of sublime genius

Others know him through his munificence, his omnipotence, his Word.

He is known as The Hep.

1
Sheev | 21 May 2010 - 9:03am

The rules of economics

seem to have been totally disregarded in recent years. If Quantitative Easing is so easy and doesn't cause rampant inflation how come it hasn't used before? Also as UK Plc who do we actually borrow the money from? - surely at some point we'll be told enough is enough you can't have any more.
It seems to me on a very simplistic level that there is too much "money and other financial instruments" in circulation that simply do not exist and that the entire economic system could collapse in the future.
If that's the case it may be better not to know and understand.

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Pinmonkey | 21 May 2010 - 9:07am

UK plc

... borrows money from 'the world' by issuing government bonds ... the world buys the bonds, UK plc gets cash to put towards nurses, your dad's state pension, interest payments on money it borrowed before, dave the rifleman in helmand and some consensual giveaways (redistributive tax credits, child benefits and dole money) etc ...

people keep buying UK government bonds because the government has an open-ended supply of cash (which it raises by taxing the folk who live in the UK) ... if the finances are run so badly that that the debt gets out of hand, the people start burning down banks or the government says "nah boo yah, i know you lent us money but we have nuclear weapons and we've just decided not to pay you back" then the country's credit rating goes down the toilet, no one buys any more UK government bonds and we really do literally run out of cash to pay for nurses, your dad's state pension, interest on money borrowed before, dave the rifleman in helmand and consensual giveaways (see "Greece")

odd someone should mention Niall Ferguson's money book because it says there have been shitloads of national debt defaults before in the 19th and 20th C (South American states, Russia as well I think) ... i suppose the 21st C difference is the globalised, pack-of-cards nature of international finance?

anyway, i think this is accurate - anyone better read than me wish to improve on the above?

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Glenbervie | 21 May 2010 - 11:11am

on not knowing

I have a similar background to Merv, and admire his bravery in admitting what he feels to be a weakness (although I think it is simply the way we all are, if we would only but admit it). One of the features of the current crises seems to be that economic matters had got too complex for governments and even many senior people in financial institutions to either understand or want to tackle. The 'exotic' financial instruments are a fine illustration of this state of affairs. I think the most danger arises when people who are in a position to influence such affairs become paralysed due to a lack of knowledge.

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jingard | 21 May 2010 - 9:53am

Must we know everything anyway?

Some things I'll never really understand because I'm not really interested in them. If I feel I need to know, then I find out more.

The things I'm interested in I understand.

Does that make sense?

We can't be across everything, all the time, and surely no one expects us to be. It would be exhausting.

Relax...

1
Five-Centres | 21 May 2010 - 10:08am

We're entering Donald Rumsfeld territory here:

"... as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

I could never understand why he got so much flak for saying something so clearly.

1
Mark JF | 21 May 2010 - 11:19am

The irony being

that it was probably the most cogent thing he ever said in public life.

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illuminatus | 21 May 2010 - 11:40am

I can't get my head round anything scientific at all

If I was the last person left on the planet and aliens landed and asked me how electricity works, I wouldn't have a clue. You press a button and a light comes on - what happens in between is clearly witchcraft. I obviously need a one-to-one session with the lovely Professor Brian Cox..

However, I do understand English grammar and the offside rule.

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hazeyjane | 21 May 2010 - 10:46am

You know what?

You don't need to know

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chabsy | 21 May 2010 - 11:11am

yeah but no, but no

three major planks of UK foreign policy identified in the Grauniad this morning by Simon Jenkins were nuclear weapons, membership of Europe and the war in Afghanistan

to get a handle on those, i think the 'informed voter' would need to have some sort of grasp of great power interference in Afghanistan since the year dot, geopolitics, actual rather than sensationalised threat to the UK from that country and the mutual web of realpolitik obligations that we participate in by virtue of our relationships with the US, EU and NATO ... just for starters (let alone a view on whether "our boys" should be coming home in body bags for a strategic aim that seems increasingly fuzzy)

with Trident, it's about (in no particular order) cost, morality, security, proliferation, disarmament and the likely future need for that kind of weapons system ... let alone the fact that the missiles are leased from the US, kind of, while the nasty bit on top is Made In Britain ... (thereby maintaining a certain skills level in the UK that is not universally available) etc

and as for Europe, oh hell, you probably need a working knowledge of post WW2 economic and political development across the Continent, and not just from a Britcentric perspective ...

and that's just the main issues of traditional foreign policy ... let alone climate change ... and then there's all the domestic stuff too ... i'd say we do need to know, because otherwise we won't even have any kind of grasp of what the government is doing or why ... which renders voting about as useful as casting runes...

1
Glenbervie | 21 May 2010 - 11:24am

The three major planks of the current Government are surely

Cameron, Clegg and Osborne?

(Thank you! Goodnight!)

3
Steven C | 21 May 2010 - 11:39am

Nice

Think that's as good a place to end.

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sleepytigercub | 21 May 2010 - 11:49am

>

I've never met anyone high up in business who has remotely impressed me and I'm sure I haven't impressed them either.
It strikes me that if you really will yourself to know a lot about, for example, stocks and shares, over the course of no more than a week you are automatically going to be in the top 1% in the country on that subject because that subject is mind-numbingly dull and tedious.

It's like Cameron recently becoming Prime Minister.
The media declared him the cleverest politician/man of his generation.
No, wrong, he's the cleverest man of his generation who wanted (really wanted) to be Prime Minister.

I suspect that much cleverer and more interesting men are sitting up trees or are gardeners or postmen.

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ranger | 21 May 2010 - 11:52am

It's just basic paranoia

Everyone in the universe gets it apparently.

1
badger_king | 21 May 2010 - 12:11pm

I know I don't understand things

apart from what it's m job to understand, but what really worries me is that very few in a position of power seem to have a f****** clue about what's going on either. Sitting here staring into the abyss of possible total career/life meltdown thanks to some recent spectacularly stupid decisions by both senior management and idiot regional and national politicians it's never been clearer that this is the case. Bugger. Buen fin de semana all.

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Madrid | 21 May 2010 - 1:37pm

I know nothing

...but a good friend of mine seems to. Although he is a pessimist by nature (unusual for a stockbroker), he thinks this country is deeply fucked.

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kb | 21 May 2010 - 2:20pm

It probably is...

Judging by the state of the job market here, and the fact that I've not any a real sniff of a proper face-to-face job interview this year I'd echo that. The local economy is already bolloxed, with many empty shops, and many more only getting by by selling low-market tat. When jobs come up they're very over subscribed - one local employer had 400+ applications for just 8 part-time jobs.

I used to work with share-trading systems, dealing with the people who did the trading, and most simply had no idea as to what the heck they were doing.

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JQW | 21 May 2010 - 3:12pm

We don't know what we don't know

I've just come back from a radio show where one discussion suggested that there is a lot of stuff that we personally don't know or understand, there is a lot of stuff that we know about that nobody understands but there is (probably) an even greater amount of stuff that we don't even know about let alone understand.

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JohnW | 21 May 2010 - 10:51pm

those would be

the unknown unknowns then?

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Glenbervie | 22 May 2010 - 10:04am

One thing that *has* been

helpful to me is the FT, a recent example of why is this:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/67ae51e2-5e35-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html

The Abbey Theatre in Dublin is an august institution. It is Ireland’s national theatre, created by William Butler Yeats, Lady Augusta Gregory and John Millington Synge. Conceived more than a century ago in the heat of Ireland’s great cultural revival, an act of rebellion against English rule, its mission was “to bring upon the stage the deeper emotions of Ireland”.

That is what it plans to do next month, when it stages an unusual one-man show. Outsiders feature David McWilliams, economist, broadcaster, commentator and thorn in the paw of the Celtic Tiger. He was among the few to have spotted and called the credit and property bubbles that brought the tiger to its knees, and has pilloried and pickled the country’s political, financial and business elite in a stream of best-selling pop-economy polemics. Follow the Money is his latest, bursting with profane portraits lampooning the dramatis personae of the boom and bust who, as it were, talked themselves on to the stage. A stand-up economist is born.

“When the parliament of a country turns into a theatre, then the theatre must become the parliament,” says McWilliams, gleefully irreverent behind a shock of red hair as he sips coffee in his local café in Dalkey, south of Dublin. Excoriating Dublin’s bail-out of the banks last month, he retrieved the figure of the Gombeen – the loathed money-lenders who preyed on the peasantry after the great famine – for use against those who operate at the tawdriest intersections of politics and business. “The neo-gombeen,” McWilliams wrote in the Irish Independent, “is a traditional gombeen hiding behind the international lexicon of high finance. The neo-gombeen thinks that if he uses the language of the Financial Times, as opposed to the Skibbereen Eagle, he can get away with it.”

well up to their best standard, imo. Part of what I like is the way the paper often confounds knee-jerk expectations of what they will write about [that piece is followed by one on Germans living as Native Americans in Italy, and one on Cuban doctors.]

The other thing that helps me is triangulation-I have no reason to suppose that either of these

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7127607.ece

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-long-road-leading-to-n...

accounts is free of ConDem propaganda, but taken together I feel I've learned something. Not suggesting this isn't an obvious pov but it does at least give the illusion of knowledge ;-)

And anyway, even Noam Chomsky needs a day off now and again ;-);-)

http://www.theonion.com/articles/exhausted-noam-chomsky-just-going-to-tr...

"I just want to lie in a hammock and have a nice relaxing morning," said the outspoken anarcho-syndicalist academic, who first came to public attention with his breakthrough 1957 book Syntactic Structures. "The systems of control designed to manufacture consent among a largely ignorant public will still be there for me to worry about tomorrow. Today, I'm just going to kick back and enjoy some much-needed Noam Time."

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SpaceBoy | 22 May 2010 - 10:56am
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