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The Ashes - what's the early betting? EDIT - AND THE WINNER IS...*
OK the English cricket team have arrived in Australia and in about three and a half weeks the First Test begins in Brisbane on Nov 25.
So what's the Massive's prediction for the series?
It's the strongest England team for several years and Australia just lost a series in India (admittedly it's difficult to win there). I'm going to say 3-2 to Australia but without a lot of confidence. If Pieterson finds some form England could well win 4-1.
Anyway, let's make predictions up to Nov 24 and after the last test finishes in January I'll post the winner/s (if any) and maybe someone can suggest a prize. Your shout at the next Massive meet-up?
*DAVE AMITRI who correctly predicted 3-1 to England. Congratulations sir. If I ever get to England and a Massive meet-up I'll buy you a beer. Australian cricket is going through an amazing period of denial, NOBODY seems to be doing the decent thing and resigning, from the captain to the selectors to the coach. Blood will be shed. And of course congratulations to England, what a great team. Cheers then...
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My predos...
Series result: 3-2 England.
Top England batsman: Strauss.
Top England bowler: Broad.
Top Australia batsman: Katich.
Top Australia bowler: Johnson.
Man of the series: Strauss.
England to win 4-0
That may turn out to be ridiculously over-confident, but the England team just look so superior.
Pietersen is a worry though. I wouldn't even have taken him. Fortunately in Bell, Morgan and Trott we have a very strong middle order without him, but how would he take being dropped, and would he sulk around the England camp creating a problem? Last summer's Twitter outburst should be a clue!
In any case, not being a Sky subscriber, I won't get to see any of it as I've just read that there will be no terrestial highlights at all in the UK. Just how short-sighted are the clowns who run cricket? I was looking forward to watching the usual 45 minutes of highlights on Five with my young son. How do they expect to nurture the next generation of cricket lovers if they can't even watch Ashes highlights?
Bite the bullet
Get Sky
If you really think we'll win 4-0, Johan, ....
I'd get down the bookies quick because you'll get great odds. It's never going to happen, though, is it? This is Australia we're talking about. They could stick 3 kangaroos and a koala bear in the team and they would never lose 0-4 to England at home. Get real.
Well I wasn't
a million miles from being right, was I?! It was a massacre even if it was 3-1 rather than 4-0.
2-1
To England.
Pieterson will not finish the tour.
That's all my crystal ball can see at the moment!
2-1
To England.
Pieterson will not finish the tour.
That's all my crystal ball can see at the moment!
no highlights?
No terrestrial highlights? That's a real pity. Definitely not a smart move by the cricketing authorities. I am, however, really looking forward to tuning in to Test Match Special at all kinds of ridiculous hours.
Englad to retain the ashes with a 2-2 draw.
Men of the series - Strauss and Broad. I'd be quite surprised if Pieterson does anything significant.
I was going to say 2-2
but seemed a cop out as the OP.
The draw will be cos of weather, I think both teams are capable of taking 20 wickets. Strauss and Broad are defs the top England players. Pieterson is an unknown. Surely he's due for a few scores?
A tight series
What England need to overcome is the demons of the past. The Flower, Strauss regime seems to be working as much on the team's mental toughness as on their physical condition. That mental toughness will be critical. On paper, England are the stronger unit but Aussies in their own backyard are never less than very formidable.
On the playing front, the critical factor as in any cricket match or series will be the bowlers. If Jimmy Anderson and Graham Strauss in particular gain some early dominance over the Aus batsmen - then England will prosper. If, on the other hand, Hilfenhaus, Nannes and Johnson find form - then England may well struggle as I do not think the brittleness of its middle order is entirely a thing of the past.
Fascinating series - which might be 1-1, 1-0 to England - or my hunch, 2-1 to Australia.
2-1
to Australia.
The best prepared England team since W.G. Grace was a boy go out to face the weakest Australian side since Bradman was but a glint in his father's eye....
... only to find that the belief that once you get Ponting out there's nothing left was naught but a vain hope.
Very poor prediction
Even Ponting wasn't putting up much resistance.
It seems that it was the best prepared side since W G Grace were a lad and not a vainglorious hope.
Engerlund...
will live or die with the bat of Pietersen. He is the one class act that either side have... butter him up, tell him he is wonderful, massage his ego, and Engerlund will win this 3-0. If KP does not perform, then it's too close to call.
pardon?
KP the one class act on either side? I really don't know what you mean by 'class act' ... Ponting's test record is outstanding.
A 3 -1 victory for England
Australia are in the sort of decline that happens to every team at some point, they were badly beaten in India and as long as England keep their mental strength as mentioned above then man for man they are just better than Australia at this time. Pietersen will rise to the occasion, his arrogance will make sure of that. Mitchell Johnson is the Aussies main weapon but erratic in a way that makes Steve Harmison look like Glen McGrath. Oh and Hauritz v Swann? No contest.
Player of the series Swann
Batsman Pietersen
Ponting to resign before the end of the series.
"Ponting to resign"?
That's a big call. I think he'd resign at the END of the series and he himself has almost said that if Aust lose he'd have to. The last Aussie captain to resign was Kim Hughes, that was a truly pathetic episode to live through. They'll never do it but Australia should appoint Cameron White as captain, he's a "natural leader" and has the kind of brashness as a batsmen that is too rare these days.
IMHO
Round of applause to Dave
for 3-1!
2-1 Australia
Australia were in fact very close to winning both Test matches in India, only failing with two rather dramatic batting collapses in the second innings.
Australia will win because of home advantage and the fact that many of our bowlers are good when it swings about but have not really experienced an Aussie pitch with a Kookaburra. Swan is indeed key but I worry about the long term form of Collingwood, Cook and Pietersen.
We never win in Brisbane except for 1986/87 when this man with highlights was taking Merv Hughes apart.
I Can't See Australia Losing
Not On Home turf, on the other hand England are better, 2-2 is a good prediction I think, England retaining the Ashes
Double Post
again
I don't trust Australia,
and don't think England are quite as strong as they like to think they are. In pre-McGrath and Warene days, they always managed to unover some some demon bowler - and they obviously know their conditions far better than we do. I certainly would not under-estimate them, they were unfortunate in losing the Ashes the last time in the UK. They largely lost the series because they lost some crucial sessions, their batting and bowler statistics were better than ours. Our wins over Pakistan were nothing special and there are weaknesses; I don't think much of Strauss as a captain (though that will probably be balanced out by Ponting's captaincy weakness), Cook is a slip or LBW dismissal waiting to happen, believe Pietersen's mind and confidence have gone and we rely far too much on Swann. Anderson is a great bowler in swing conditions but on hard Australian pitches, can see him being expensive and not as productive, though Tremlett is a good choice and this could well be Broad's series. I still worry that our batting is a little flakey. It should be a good series though because there are so many unanswered questions with both teams about their potential and if this England side can do it, they could become a very good side. Pre4diction,we ought to be just good enough to get a draw and keep the blasted urn. We have to start well though.
Now, the crucial question....will it be shown on terrestial tv ?
Tv seems to be such an issue
in England. It's still shown on free-to-air here in Australia, thankfully.
Also I'm amazed at the general un-confidence (if that's a word or phrase) from the UK re the England team. Really, on paper, and on recent results they should romp home!
24 years
can do that to you.
The free to air issue is
why the venerable Richie Benaud retired from tv broadcasting in the UK when rights were sold to SKY in 2005. I kind of understand why the cricket board did it, hard to turn down such a huge wodge of money and they will argue that it may help with cricket development. However, no point in developing a game if nobody's watching ! The cricket board also rather damned themslves by tying themselves in with that whole Stanford shambles. I would echo what other correspondents have said about this issue. I used to be a huge cricket fan and regularly went to games and finals. I knew all about my team - Middlesex - but cricket has just lost its way and we have become far football-centric. When I was growing up, it was football in winter and cricket in the summer and the overlaps with winter tours and football world cups. Now 'proper cricket' hardly gets a look-in what with all the 20-20 obsession and the only time the game gets in the news is when there are controversies - very sad. I do think that the county system in England is unsustainable and has been for a long time, but I would still be sad to see games at Arundel and Canterbury dying out. On the bright side, given that football tickets are so exorbitant, maybe cricket could sell itself as the cheaper alternative and get kids interested in the game that way ?
I don't think Australia are as poor as people say nor are England as good. We are going there with a lot of unproven bowlers (in Australian conditions) and our batting was flakey even against Pakistan. In 2005 I was confident because we had players and a captain in top form and would have won more handsomely had it not been for the almost superhuman efforts of Warne, but I'm genuinly not sure this time.
Still go for a draw.
If it’s not on terrestrial TV, cricket will die.
I’m a lifelong cricket lover, in fact for many years I was a cricket obsessive. But until this post I’d forgotten all about the ashes. For the first time ever I don’t even know who won the country championship this year. I forgot to look.
Why? I’ve lived outside the UK for 6 years now and I have to actually search it out, it’s no longer just there. With each passing year it slips further from the front of my mind. I occasionally pop down to the local Irish pub to watch a bit – they send me upstairs to a lonely bar where I’m the only person – wonderful atmosphere. I occasionally remember to check cricinfo or the papers but now on a monthly not weekly or even daily basis as it used to be. This is how it will be for everyone in the UK without SKY.
This has happened to a man who loved cricket above all other sports – above music and film even for good chunks of my life. Who has going to Headingley with my Grandad as probably the happiest of my childhood memories. If this happens to hardened addicts when exposure is reduced what the hell will happen to those with a passing interest? Above all, where the hell will future fans come from? Those running cricket in the UK are clearly idiots beyond compare.
As for a prediction… For the first time ever I don’t have on opinion. I don’t now enough about either side. In 2012 how many more like me will there be?
That's very sad to hear
I got my son into cricket some years ago, we went to test matches at the SCG for the full five days. Then suddenly he lost interest - thankfully for music - he goes to more gigs than I do - but I still follow cricket via ABC radio and the newspaper. It's there - don't give up!
You're right of course
that it's still there and still easy to follow. The old cliche about cricket that it's the one sport you don't need to see in order to follow is very true. But increasingly for me the players are now just names. I've never seen half the England team even on the telly. And once you lose that personal element it's just that much less interesting.
..
..
I'm not
very well informed on the subject of cricket, but congratulations to both sides - they must have beaten a lot of very good teams to get to the final of the "Ashes".
This is one of the reasons I never watch The Boat Race...
Brum Poly never, ever made the final. Pointless.
Thanks Mousey
I'm just so pleased we won, I still remember the 90's when I thought we'd never win again. Sport goes in cycles, Australia will come again.
I'm also very happy with my "erratic" Johnson prediction, he was the only Aussie who could have made a difference. Bring on the World Cup!!