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Football: is the bubble about to fade and die?

BigJimBob's picture

I know there a few footie fans on here. What do you think is happening to our national game?

In the last few days, Gold and Sullivan have let out hints of a coming Armageddon for West Ham: the books are bad, everyone has to take a pay cut and they made it very plain that "its gonna be bad" if they are relegated. Meanwhile, Pompey staggers from one stay of execution to another, being swapped between shady overseas owners like a unwanted Panini trading card.

These are not isolated happenings. The last transfer window was a damp squib with hardly any cash changing hands. Need I mention the MacBeth level scheming going on at Man U and Liverpool? In the current circumstances it is interesting to see that clubs like Arsenal and Aston Villa, who were berated by fan for their "unambitious spending" in the transfer market, seem to be weathering the storm okay. I bet those agents - who all seem to be from central casting's stock of Eastenders Minor Villains - are beginning to get worried.

Meanwhile outside the Premiership things look even worse, Crystal Palace are walking towards the precipice, Notts County have sacked Svenners and and have been sold on again, and even a well supported club like Cardiff have 28 days to avoid a winding up order.

Myself, I suspect that salaries may have peaked now and there are going to be a a lot of belt tightening. Are we all going to enjoy the schadenfreude as the recession finally bites the football industry or will we be mourning the end for footie as we know it?

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Yes and no

I think the gap between the big clubs and smaller clubs will widen even further. The days of the likes of Bolton, Wigan, Blackburn or even Newcastle spraying millions at rising foreign stars every summer are probably over. Meanwhile, those in with a chance of regularly occupying the European places at the top of the Premier League in the years to come - that'd be the "big four", plus Spurs, Villa and Manchester City - will probably stay pretty much as they are for a good while yet.

Globally, football is healthier than it's ever been. A telling stat: last year, for the first time ever, the Champions League final had higher TV ratings - and presumably generated more advertising revenue - than the Super Bowl.

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Archie Valparaiso | 12 February 2010 - 12:35pm

I agree with you on the global scene, Archie

Football will also get a huge boost from the World Cup. But I am thinking more of the UK scene. After the Murdoch fueled Klondike years, it seems that the gold rush is over and everyone is beginning to count the costs.

Maybe the much touted European league will become more tempting for the big 4 and their coat-tailers? In which case the premiership will be devalued and probably anything below it will effectively cease to exist for broadcasters and sponsors

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BigJimBob | 12 February 2010 - 1:03pm

Sunderland's "Stadium of Light"

and other such extravagances will surely become the 21st century equivalent of Victorian follies.

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Archie Valparaiso | 12 February 2010 - 1:31pm

As a Chester City supporter man and boy

these last 6 months have been absolute torture. A document in the press yesterday showed that our owners (a 'reputable' boxing promoter from Liverpool...) have amassed an astounding £703,000 of debt since June. This includes a £485,000 amount of 'directors loans'...

My lovely, 125 year old Club still does not have zero points in the Conference (we started on -25 because of the same owners financial mismanagement of last season. How can an owner who takes a club into administration to the tune of £5m buy the Club back for £100k???), and couldn't send a team to Forest Green last Tuesday as they hadn't paid any wages for 3 months. They also hadn't paid the bus company.

Peoples dreams and memories are tied up in football clubs, and they should never be stepped on. A rigorous fit and proper persons test should be passed prior to ANY person taking control of these cornerstones of our community. Maybe the government need to protect it's National Game TM. Self governance clearly isn't working.

Our club will be kicked out of the pyramid this week. This should not be allowed to happen. It is heartbreaking.

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waldorf | 12 February 2010 - 12:50pm

Presumably....

You will follow Fisher Athletic and relaunch as AFC Chester or something at the bottom level of the pyramid and start again. Hopefully teams in time will learn to live within their means and as you say there are too many cowboys running clubs into the ground for their own benefit or because they think football can avoid having the same sort of proper business model any other business runs on.

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Doug B | 12 February 2010 - 3:07pm

But it's totally unfair...

to allow a Club like Chester to go to the wall due to the bad management of the current Board. Sure, the culprits should be made to pay dearly but not to take it out on a historic Club, their players, staff and supporters.

How the governing bodies can penalise a Club rather than an individual and yet allow the farce with the Milton Keynes franchise, killing off Wimbledon to allow a rich businessman to create a brand new club, is beyond me.

Then you look at Cardiff and Peter Ridsdale, how the hell did this idiot be allowed to take over and ruin another club after what he did at Leeds?!

Surely, there must be money available from the cash filled coffers of the FA and Premier League to filter down to help clubs in the situation that Chester find themselves.

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Retro Man | 12 February 2010 - 4:46pm

The team I watch..

Every week is in the Ryman's Premier where teams are spending more than they can afford to try and get into the Blue Square South let alone the Blue Square Premier. If Chester were doing well would they pay to help those clubs out?
All clubs are greedy, they all steal the best players from the Leagues below at the cheapest price they can and bitch when similar things happen to them.
I totally agree that there needs to be proper controls on who can own Football Clubs but greed and self interest win out over high moral concerns every day in "the beautiful game"
I would rather Portsmouth went out of business over Chester any day of the week but personally I think that the Premier League is too much of a global brand to allow it to happen.
Why the majority of monies passed down in football go to the higher leagues rather than the lower leagues is beyond me but hardly surprising.

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Doug B | 12 February 2010 - 5:05pm

I think you

just have to look at the decline of Serie A in Italy. Italian football was at the top in the eighties and the bubble burst leading Juventus to take the most extreme steps to try and ensure their survival in the top flight. Stadiums there now are half empty and very few of the the top players ply their trade in Italy. Beckham at AC is an example as Beckham wouldn't get in the squad of any of the other Champions League top clubs. In England Sky hold the key, if they ever pull out the English clubs are in even bigger trouble but it feeds itself as Sky won't work without football so it's all down to public interest.
For me this is the most interesting of seasons, Palace, Portsmouth and their like are unfortunately inevitable but Liverpools current plight if they don't make 4th place will become worse maybe a Leeds Utd situation.
In answer to the original question, not yet but clubs lowereing their sights and furiously getting their houses in order with lower wages, administration if required will become more common place. Coventry's chairman was on Sky last night saying they have removed 40million of debt in the last 2 years and they are on schedule, they are currently in the bottom half of The Championship and for them that is success.

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Dave Amitri | 12 February 2010 - 12:57pm

"If Sky pulled out..."

is a refrain we hear from time to time when discussing English football's ponderables but there's not the slightest suggestion they're going to do that. Which isn't to disagree with the basic notion that the professional game would be turned upside down if they did.

By the way, have there been any recorded instance of anyone failing the FA's "Fit and Proper Persons" test, because I can't think of any. Or would such failures be kept secret for fear of legal action?

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johnlyons121 | 12 February 2010 - 1:06pm

Thaksin

When he was considered "fit and proper" to take over Man City, that's when I knew the gig was up for me.

Now that even "the big 4" appear to be surviving on a wing on a prayer, surely it's a matter of time before the whole lot comes crashing down....

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masked tortilla | 12 February 2010 - 5:29pm

As a Saints fan

we've been through a torrid few years that we're really only coming out of this season. Thankfully we look stable in League 1, and the 10 point deduction from administration has been overcome fairly quickly, and it finally looks like we have reached a point that we can start to build from.

I totally sympathise, it looked likely at one point less than a year ago that my club would be wound up....

I can see even further increasing gaps between the leagues, to the extent that you wonder if some clubs now actually welcome promotion to a higher division that they can't afford. Do you 'chase the dream' with potentially catastrophic financial consequences or be prudent with your budget and spend a season getting thrashed each week?

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jimmymack | 12 February 2010 - 1:32pm

Three teams were in court

on the same day this week, avoiding winding up orders (Pompey, Southend and Cardiff). Doesn't bode well given what's already happened to Southampton and Palace.

A lot of teams have spent cash they have yet to earn, from big money games that may never take place. Seems that no one learned much from what happened to Leeds.

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fortuneight | 12 February 2010 - 1:42pm

The Premier League.....the poisoned chalice.

As soon as the Premier League was created, football as we knew changed forever. The money created caused a rift which helped destroy the (relatively) fair playing field. The Premiership has become the holy grail and although only three teams are lucky enough to be promoted to that pinnacle, there's far more than 3 clubs spending way beyond their means to obtain promotion. A close friend of mine for the first time didn't renew his season ticket this year after our star midfielder allegedly turned down £6000 a week (the most the club have ever offered) because he wanted £12000. This was the straw that broke the camels back for him. My club are currently fifth in the Championship, in the playoff positions and I genuinely don't know whether I would want us to get promotion. I have seen so many teams (Leeds U, Norwich, Southampton, Leicester, Nottingham Forest) in the Premiership, overspend and end up getting relegated two divisions. Relegation can be catastrophic, and I don't want my club to spend what we haven't got to reach hold of that poisoned chalice that is the Premier League.

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Steve Hill | 12 February 2010 - 1:47pm

What therefore is...

your team to aim for? Continual mid table with the odd cup run and some entertaining football? Wouldn't you love a season or two with full houses and games against the bigguns?

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Charlie Gordon | 12 February 2010 - 2:04pm

FA Cup

Has been completely devalued. No one seems bothered about"the magic" any more. Look at the pitiful turn outs at several of the recent cup matches...

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masked tortilla | 12 February 2010 - 5:31pm

a couple of years ago...

in the cup when Portsmouth won and they were the only premiership team in the semis, a player from one of the others still in, West Bromwich, was asked whether he was excited about the prospect of potentially going to Wembley and winning the cup and the glory that would bring the team and himself. He replied that the cup run was "a nice bonus" but the team was focused on getting in the Premiership. Speaks volumes.

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Charlie Gordon | 12 February 2010 - 5:43pm

I don't know

Charlie, I honestly don't know. If we got promoted and our board didn't spend beyond their means...then yeah. My fear would be if somehow we managed to not get relegated in season 2, and start spending to become a top 10 side, and then get relegated. Then you have two seasons to remove all your highest earners before the parachute payments end. And then, with your best players gone, no parachute money, you have to stay in the Championship. It's not as easy as it looks.

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Steve Hill | 12 February 2010 - 2:18pm

Pretty much what happened to us..

..we had an OK-ish first year in the Championship and then got to the play-offs the year after, but after that all the rest of our decent players were sold off to finance debts, we only avoided a drop to League 1 on the last day a couple of years ago before administration made it a certainty last season.

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jimmymack | 12 February 2010 - 2:53pm

I agree

Forgetting top four...who is the model club lower league chairman should be aiming to emulate?

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Charlie Gordon | 12 February 2010 - 2:59pm

Fulham and Villa

Fulham and Villa

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Richard Lowe | 13 February 2010 - 10:54am

Both benefiting from...

Randy and Mohammed (nearly put the two together). Given the stupefying Premiership business model, you really need to have a billionaire prepared to lose a lot of moolah.

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Charlie Gordon | 15 February 2010 - 2:59pm

There are alternatives

Given the way the Manchester United & Liverpool models now work, you need an international institution of a football club where the debt will never be called in, so that a billionaire can rape it for a few more billion. Nice work if you can get it.

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Molesworth | 16 February 2010 - 8:53am

West Ham

Sullivan would not have touched it if the implications of rekegation were as catastrophic as he makes out. He leaves a trail of slime wherever he walks but he's no mug. He's trying to put the frighteners on one and all in order to justify the swingeing cuts that are coming.

Sullivan would NEVER buy into something where he would lose money. The I'm a fan story is garbage. He's a fan of money and, when West Ham move to the Olympic Stadium he will make his killing by selling up the Upton Park land. That's the only reason he's at West Ham, just as he was at Birmingham. Profit pure and simple.

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Molesworth | 12 February 2010 - 2:26pm

Only time will tell what Sullivan's motives are

and I agree that this may be just laying the ground for what's to come. But I think there's more to it than him just chasing cash. If West Ham were such a cert there would have been other bidders - indeed the more certain the cash payoff, the more there would have been. As it was, there was just one, and they only took 50% of the club.

The real estate value of Upton park is questionable. It's worth bugger all at the moment, but it may get a boost post the Olympics. Either way it's a huge gamble. There's little sign - in public at leasst - that Lord Coe and his chums have got any interest in doing a deal with Sullivan.

This isn't the first time Sullivan and Gold have had equity in West Ham, which lends some credibility to their claims to be supporters - particulalry Gold who hails from Green Street.

I know Sullivan has made a lot of money out of tits over the years, but if I was looking for a cash cow to milk, I wouldn't try squeezing West Ham.

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fortuneight | 12 February 2010 - 6:01pm

He made a fortune out of

the tits at Birmingham...

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Molesworth | 12 February 2010 - 6:55pm

Preston74 my name but Blackburn my team..

If only the days of splashing out on expensive foreign stars were over for the likes of Blackburn.
Over the last 12 months we've forked out, I am led to believe, our highest-ever salaries to El Hadji Diouff and Michel Salgado, both fitful contributors if we're being kind, taken a South African lad from a Dutch club last July on 30 grand a week who played 15 minutes of a Carling Cup tie before being mercifully moved out in January.
We have a Dutch lad called Maceo Rigters who was signed by Mark Hughes after impressing in the 2008 Under-21 tournament or some such - he has another year to run on his contract and is understandably keen not to terminate his lucrative fiscal arrangements despite performing wretchedly on loan to both Barnsley and Norwich.
In the last days of the 2010 January window we signed a 34-year-old Turkish player from a German club who has played about 11 games in the last 4 years and a French/Algerian midfielder on a "free" from St Etienne
Our other close-season Sam Allardyce acquisitions, all on decent wages & presumably agent commissions if not costing huge fees were Stephen N'Zonzi, Lars Jacobsen, £6m misfit Nicola Kalinic and, on-loan, Franco Di Santo - as the more astute among you may have ascertained, not many traditional Lancastrian surnames there
The football this season, while not totally unsuccesful results-wise, has been utterly unwatchable sub-Stoke long throw hoofball bilge
Last week a lad who supported us was killed during some rowdy behaviour under the concourse at Stoke at half time and during the week a few of us, while not having witnessed the incident I must point out, were discussing a disturbing shift in behaviour patterns.
Among away support of late, there has been an increasing level of general boorishness, racist chanting, inter-town parochial baiting, and general dissension about the rubbish performances, leading to an unprecedented amount of folks arguing bitterly among themselves.
The main thrusts of the basic counter-arguements often run: "This is crap, Allardyce, play it on the deck and get a second striker on," "Shut up moaning and get behind the team," and "Eff off, I'll say what I want I've paid good money to watch these overpaid tossers" ... and so on
My chums and I were saying that when people are charged 50 quid or so for a ticket, mediocrity is not something they are prepared to accept
In some ways, we were all easier to please in the old 1980's Second Division era - waddling out of the local WMC at five to kick-off time, paying three quid cash at the gate - you almost expected, at that low cost, to be presented with a bag of crap and didn't complain too much when you were. A decent performance was almost a bonus and if it wasn't forthcoming, what was the opportunity cost? A couple more pints in the pub maybe.
These days what it costs to watch a Premier League game could get you a movie and a bite to eat, or tickets to see a jolly decent band/comedian
I would love the days of spraying millions at mediocre foreign players to be at an end but fear we may not be as close to that point as we would like

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Preston74 | 12 February 2010 - 2:35pm

Something doesn't add up somewhere

50 quid, you say?

This summer Barcelona bought Zlatan Ibrahimovic for €66 million and they pay him a salary of €9 million a year, and at least half a dozen other players are paid over €5 million a year each as well.

Yet you can get tickets for their next home match for just €40 (about 35 quid).

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Archie Valparaiso | 12 February 2010 - 4:18pm

Yes but Barca

Get gates of what 70 000 per game? Also football doesn't have any rival rival sporting attractions/distractions. Plus they are owned by the fans. Interesting that this ownership model is never used in the UK.

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BigJimBob | 12 February 2010 - 4:19pm

Plus Barca and for that matter Real Madrid

have helpful banks (and governments) who wouldn't dare bankrupt them.

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Charlie Gordon | 12 February 2010 - 4:26pm

Well said, that man

Preston 74, your post describes exactly the sort of nonsense we as Newcastle fans had to put up with under Fat Sam and his anti - football method. Indeed the atmosphere at matches became so poisonous, I relinquished my season ticket and stopped going altogether after 30 years of thin and thinner. Of course, I'm just a deluded Geordie.....

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heshofcheese | 12 February 2010 - 7:28pm

The current rash of court cases

is directly related to HMRC taking a much harder line with Football clubs than has been the case in the past.
This is a result of the Football regulation that states all Football related debts should be paid in full before other creditors get a slice of the pie. Consequently, we have had situations like when Bradford collapsed, when the Revenue were left £2.5 million light whilst Benito Carbone had his £40K a week contract paid off in full.
Other examples, more recently, include Leeds who owed HMRC £7 mill but only had to pay 10% of that.
It is estimated HMRC have lost over £30 million from Football clubs going into administration and this has resulted in the new tougher attitude.
Can't say I blame them when the salaries have got so out of hand.

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Salty | 12 February 2010 - 4:31pm

Reading FC

we're caught right in the middle of the dilemma we're discussing at the moment and as a fan it is very frustrating. From spending two years in the Premier League (which actually corrupted and soiled the Club I love, but that's another story...) we are now on the slide.

On one hand we are seeing a team stripped of all it's assets, it's best players sold off and being replaced by the odd journeyman and the rest of the squad filled in by youth team players.

Instead of spending money to get a high profile Manager such as Hoddle or Curbishley, they get in the ex-youth team Manager, as he is cheap, grateful and knows the young players already.
He is shit, way out of his depth and is sacked after 6 months with the team in the bottom three and looking likely to "do" a Leeds, Charlton, Southampton etc etc.

But then the Board are saying that it is important not to spend out of hand, keep things in check for the long-term future of the Club.
But here's the problem, as a reasonably sensible chap I can understand this and appreciate that I don't want the Club to end of going into administration. However, as a Fan, I am screaming at the cheap bastards on the Board for not spending my season ticket money, the transfer and parachute payment money on better players and suchlike!

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Retro Man | 12 February 2010 - 5:00pm

My scizophrenic problem exactly

1) Spend money on big name players/manager and stay in Premier League
2) Spend nothing, strip the assets and stay in the black

(Two extremes I'll admit)

Happy medium required (like the Pardew/early Coppell era)

At the moment, it looks like spend as little as possible and hope for survival. If this course of action turns a profit (or at least breaks even), the chairman can sell the club on as an attractive proposition (unlike Pompey, Palace, Cardiff, Southend, or any of the many other debt-ridden clubs).
As far as I know, that has been John Madjeski's plan for a while now

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Rigid Digit | 12 February 2010 - 6:45pm

That's true...

the cynic in me says that now he has got his knighthood he is done with the Club, certainly feels that way.

But then again, he did rescue the club, we could have been Maxwell's Thames Valley Royals for god's sake!), built us a new stadium (named after his good self naturally...) and we did reach the Premier League, the first time we have ever been in the top division since the club formed back in 1871!

So, a lot to be grateful for but I hope he doesn't bow out with the fans losing that respect for him.

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Retro Man | 12 February 2010 - 7:17pm

I hope HMRC continue to push

because at the moment the taxpayer is effectively subsidising football clubs all the while they aren't paying what they owe. In these tough times, I'd rather HMRC pushed clubs into insolvency and collected even 10p on the £ rather than getting nowt at all.

Soccer should take a look at rugby. There was a plan to make the Championship (we've even followed soccer's naming conventions) all professional but there simply isn't the money to do it. My Club - Bedford - is 6th in the Championship and this makes us the 18th best club in England. But you can't be full time professional on gates of 2,500 and we cut our cloth to suit. We have a small core of full time pro's and the rest are semi-pro. Contracts are for 1 or 2 years (3 would be very exceptional) and that's the deal.

We've lost a few good young players to Premiership clubs in the last couple of seasons and we've picked up a few good older Premiership players who've been released by their clubs. Top salaries in the Premiership? Danny Cipriani is generally reckoned to be one of the best paid and on about £350k per year. There's also a salary cap: not per player but the amount a club can play in wages to its squad. How they divvy it up is up to them but it helps to ensure the top earners (in theory the best players) are spread over the entire Premiership and not all collected into 1 rich man's club.

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Mark JF | 12 February 2010 - 5:11pm

Here in Portsmouth

There is a gradual realisation that the football club is going to the wall. No-one is going to come riding over the horizon waving wads of twenties, no matter what the CE says about advanced discussions with various putative owners. The Revenue will have their day, the first Big Club will cease to exist and lots of other clubs will soil their Umbros and start looking over their shoulders. As Archie says, it's going to be the thing which brings in a European League for the big-hitters whilst the rest will operate at a much more sensible level.

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Lenny Law | 12 February 2010 - 6:05pm

it was me who said that actually

Archie is a top bloke n everything...but I do once in a blue mood have a vaguely interesting insight sulk, bitter smile

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BigJimBob | 12 February 2010 - 6:09pm

Sorry Jim

Of course it was you.

I was just blowing smoke up Archie's bum because he's probably still a bit tender following his return.

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Lenny Law | 12 February 2010 - 10:40pm

don't worry

not up set really ;-)....

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BigJimBob | 13 February 2010 - 10:43am

Belt tightening in the Premier League.

I can think of plenty of players in the Premier League who deserve a bit of belt tightening at neck level.

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Vulpes Vulpes | 12 February 2010 - 7:03pm

Of course

it's all Manchester United's fault. Everything.

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Black Type | 12 February 2010 - 9:54pm

Yellow Card

Though I often enjoy your posts on a variety of subjects, your habit of making this same point, apropos nothing, in every single football-related thread, is becoming a little bit tedious.

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Spartacus Mills | 12 February 2010 - 10:12pm

Well, you would say that,

being a Liverpool fan. My semi-serious point is that every ill of the modern game in football is usually laid at United's door, particularly by the tabloid press. The demise of the FA Cup? Check. High wages and transfer fees? Check. The naked greed and commercialism? Check. United have been portrayed as the instigators and/or 'leaders' of all these trends and more; it's only in recent times, with the huge issue of the club's debts, that the finger-pointing and criticism has somewhat dissipated.

As this thread was about the present state of football and its causes, I considered my comment to be apropos of something, but my flippancy was obviously lost in translation. Sorry to be tedious; I am flagellating myself with the 'witty and interesting' stick as I write.

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Black Type | 12 February 2010 - 10:32pm

Yes, but...

I just think you're railing against non-existent criticism, at least as far as this thread is concerned.

The only thing I blame United for is for being United (insert some sort of jokey emoticon here).

Anyway, sorry if I seemed arsey.

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Spartacus Mills | 12 February 2010 - 10:42pm

You say that, Mikhail..

I'd lay the blame at the feet of Liverpool. The success they enjoyed during the late 70's and through the 80's was the spur for Man U to become the juggernaut they now are. Abramovich wanted Chelsea to become the next Man U and his billions started the terminal distortion. The tipping-point was the takeover of Man City by sheikh whatsit. Bring on the Euro League; a potential plutocratic penis contest. Meanwhile, football as we know it can continue in the Real World.

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Lenny Law | 12 February 2010 - 10:47pm

It's impossible to lay the

It's impossible to lay the blame at the feet of any one club, I'd say. Greed has been allowed to flourish in absence of tight regulations.

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Spartacus Mills | 12 February 2010 - 11:04pm

You must be joking...

Man Utd fans throwing things onto the pitch at players rates a couple of lines if that in the press. Millwall or Leeds do the same and it's back page headline about "violent scum supporters".
Man U like all the big clubs are treaded with kid gloves as the reporters know they will lose access if they don't kiss the big 3's collective bottoms.
This poor picked on Man Utd fantasy makes me laugh.

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Doug B | 13 February 2010 - 12:41pm
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