Entertainment For Lively Minds
Financial Crisis - is it wrong to want it all to hit the fan ?
Posted by latenitetellyvision on 5 August 2011 - 11:41am.
I mean, I feel quite guilty about this, and it isn't a grown-up and sensible view, given the potential hardship involved for lots of people..
...but, part of me wants Greece, Italy, Spain, The Eurozone, banks and whoever to crash, just to see what happens, and revel in a bit of chaos
I feel almost disappointed with the (admittedly few) stories of financial recovery, and an almost voyeuristic glee at another news report of impending doom. Part of the culture of rolling new stations and the t'internet I suppose.
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It's like the world
is staging its own JG Ballard tribute performance.
Er, yes
There's not much fun in seeing people lose their jobs and the country being plunged back into recession (because we'll be brought down with it).
Might make for interesting news, but a lot of lives will be messed up by politicians failing to do their jobs properly.
Yes
It is a bit wrong. But I think schadenfreude is pretty much a universal human trait.
It would be
more understandable if it was the first time and a meltdown would provide the kick up the arse required to ensure it never happened again. But recession just follows recession and nothing changes.
exactly
and this next recession, if/when it comes, could be much deeper than the last one.
Anarchy isn't the answer, but people do need to get angry.
If it was just hedge fund managers
and investment bankers and their ilk that got hurt I could perhaps enjoy it.
However in a couple of years when we look back at this sorry mess, they'll still be rolling in wealth while a lot more of us will be even more concerned about pensions, housing affordability, jobs for ourselves, jobs for those starting out to work, jobs for those who still years away from starting work, how we're going to pay for food and electricity and gas and all the other necessities of life, never mind going out to buy luxuries.
Qué?
I don't understand any of it, particularly the apparent vulnerability (which, it seems, is decided by ratings agencies who are accountable to nobody) of what Donald Rumsfeld might have called "Old Southern Europe".
Andrew Collins, in a lengthy review of the crisis on his own blog today, says that Spain "doesn't really make anything". How, then, do we explain the 20 billion in exports to the UK alone? Or the fact that four of the top ten construction firms in the world are Spanish, while the UK can only manage one in the top 20? Man cannot live by Russell Hobbs kettles alone.
The current (originally Merkel-driven) canard that southern Europe's only role in the world economy is to be a vast drain on all our financial resources, populated as the region is by countless millions of sangría-, chianti- or ouzo-swilling slackers, who all owe the very clothes on their backs to the largesse of the busy-bee burghers of Darlington and Düsseldorf is - to say the least - simplistic.
Spain is the 8th largest car manufacturer (by volume)
Britain is 15th.
Yes
but apart from the cars and the buildings, what do the Spanish actually make?
Mugs out of English football teams
Omelettes?
Fly?
Castle Magic?
When I was a young kid in Liverpool,
chewing liquorice was known as 'spanish' - no idea why.
Boots?
of Leather?
..and
they've been known to stroll pretty well.
Harlem
Incident?
What do we actually make?
.
Explanation below...
Simple Archie. Andrew, bless him, doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about.
From his twitter feed this morning:
"I am trying to write a blog about the financial meltdown but I know nothing about economics. See you soon".
To be fair to Andrew, he's not the only one.
And in a slightly less flippant vein...
...I've now read Andrew's blog and it's not bad, although I think he over-eggs the house price argument (certainly outside of the US, the UK and Ireland) and undersells the productive capacity of the Mediterranean countries.
To address your specific point Archie, I suspect (and it's simply a suspicion, I certainly don't know) that the issues for the likes of Spain, Italy and Greece are not that they don't produce (they clearly do), but more around:
- what they produce,
- what it costs them to produce what they produce, and
- how much their governments subsidise them to produce what they produce. And consequently how much of a drain their production is on government funds.
For my sins, I am a Chartered Accountant (spit!) with a modicum of economic training/qualification and a background in risk management. So I know a little bit about this stuff. Enough to know that I really don't have a clue even about what the problem really is, let alone how the problem arose and - fundamentally - what to do about it.
Which I think puts me in the same position as 99.9% of the self-appointed 'experts' out there.
And me
But those Spanish construction firms I mentioned aren't subsidised at all, as far as I'm aware. And they're all over the place these days, as strong in infrastructure and services as they are in building proper, and with increasingly more of their turnover generated from outside Spain. (A subsidiary of one of them now collects and recycles the rubbish in 60 British towns, for example.)
As for Italy, can it really be true that Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Lancia, Iveco, Pirelli, Vespa, Zanussi, Indesit, Candy, etc. - household manufacturing names the world over that it'd be hard to match with an equivalent list of UK or even US brands - are only hanging on in there because of handouts from Brussels, funded by taxes paid by German industry?
I really, truly, don't understand anything. Oh well.
Spanish building
i have come back from Spain today and, talking to the guy whwo owned the villa we stayed, in there is a moritorium on building houses in Spain. There seems to be no length to this but there is no new building of villas happening at all for the foreseeable future. Not good of your economy is based on construction.
It's not
MAM is mistaken in his claim that the Spanish economy is based on construction; it was just the unprecedent growth over the decade before 2008 that was construction-driven, which isn't the same thing at all. (The economy as a whole depends far more on services, including tourism.) And by "construction" I meant the whole sector, of which house-building is only a part (although there is a scandalously high surplus stock, yes - they built too many homes too quickly, basically, and the bust came before they had a chance to sell them). Also, the slow-down in domestic construction since the recession began has been largely offset by a drive to secure contracts abroad. See that skyscraper in Dubai, that tunnel in the Carpathians, or that motorway in Australia? The chances that a Spanish firm is building it are very high indeed.
Although for people like me of a certain age, "construction firm" may still conjur an image of a muddy Barrett's Homes estate, these days the big firms I mentioned are making the bulk of their money from the building, operation and maintenance of large-scale infrastructure projects and associated services - rubbish collection and recycling, pipelines, wastewater-treatment plants, industrial estates, technology parks, toll motorways, metro systems, etc.
It's not, but...
Spain's largest industry is clearly tourism. Northern Europeans' demand for cheap property in Spain (offered by the Spanish) helped create a construction boom of unprecedented proportions. This spread outside the tourist zones and into Spanish urban areas creating enormous property inflation. Much like the tourism explosion of the '70's, it was not managed well.
I'm not sure where the 4 of the world's 10 largest construction companies figure came from but KHL's list has 5 Chinese, one American and one French in the top 10 leaving little room for many Spanish companies. Depends where you look, I guess.
Deloitte
But the figures were for 2009. Checking the latest report (Powers of European Construction 2010 - PDF link), Spain has three in the top 10 now (and six in the top 20). However, since that report was published, the largest Spanish firm, ACS (that's Real Madrid chairman Florentino Perez's outfit, footy fact fans), has taken over the third-placed firm on the list, Hochtief (Germany), to become a €40-billion-turnover monster, so to all intents and purposes it's 4/10 again.
The others in the top ten are three French firms, a Swedish one, an Austrian one and a British one (Balfour Beatty).
(If I said world top 10, apologies; I obviously meant Europe, although that doesn't affect my puzzlement at Spain's apparent vulnerability in the current crisis.)
Property boom
"Northern Europeans' demand for cheap property in Spain (offered by the Spanish) helped create a construction boom of unprecedented proportions. This spread outside the tourist zones and into Spanish urban areas creating enormous property inflation. Much like the tourism explosion of the '70's, it was not managed well."
And everywhere else's property booms were?
Seems to me the banking cartels saw vast profits to be made in the short term and jumped in, offering unlimited credit for all property-based transactions, regardless of risk. They thought it was a gravy train that would never end. A sure-fire winner.
When it started to go wrong they carried on offering cheap credit and invented ways of selling the bad debts they created back and forth (earning large commissions on each transaction and paying substantial bonuses to the top managers who bought and sold these "Derivatives") until that inevitably went wrong too and then they turned to their governments and said "We can't be allowed to fail or you'll all go down with us" so now we're -all- having to bail them out while the top managers carry on earning the big bonuses and the cannon-fodder bank staff get laid off, along with millions of others.
Meanwile, the ratings agencies such as Standard & Poors (who rated Lehman Brothers and the rest as AAA just before they went tits-up) are de-rating the USA from AAA to AA+ and everyone is freaking out.
They've all gone mad and I don't think I care much anymore.
But I think most of us should stop relying on "The Market" to sort itself out and start relying on their own wits to carry them through this, which I'm starting to believe is just another phase of the very slow death of the Capitalist system.
Things will probably get better than they are now but they won't be like they were before. And there'll be another even worse recession after a while and so on until it all finally -does- go beyond repair, when the shit really will hit the fan. By that time you and I will all be long gone.
Take a pop at me, Mikey
and why not?
Yes yes yes, "everywhere else's property booms were..." much like that. I was addressing a specific point about a country I like to think I know a thing or two about.
Most of us relying on our own wits is a good Objectivist position but lets always be aware of those unable to and remember the need for a social safety net.
Oh
it's you. I never noticed.
As far as relying on ones wits goes: Those unable to are going to be thrown on the mercy of the rest of us, because there won't be a social safety net anymore unless we create it ourselves. I hope to be able to help where help is needed and to be helped when I'm in need.
Proper Socialism, that.
As a friend of mine
who works in the City is fond of saying "The problem with financial forecasts is that if you laid every economist in London end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion".
P.S. As part of my personal musical Tourette's, every time I used to hear a newsreader mention events "In the City", I couldn't help but sing (more or less silently) "In the city there's a thousand things I want to say to you". This has been driven out by a more recent track which clearly has a higher Earworm Quotient.
(Rakes - 22 Grand Job)
http://youtu.be/flESd2vFXy4
Te equivocas, jovencito
Leaving the great financial thinkers Donald Rumsfeld and Andrew Collins aside, Spain largely is an industrial one-trick pony.
Nearly a decade in Madrid I spent and that ended over a decade ago. Even then analysts worried that Spain's entire financial structure was built on construction.
The iniquity in the Euro zone is that the economies of the Franco/German north are simply larger and differently structured than the so-called PIGS in the south. That Germany and Greece would not only share a currency but that this currency would be of equal value in both economies was hopeful at best.
With regards the car manufacturing, most of those vehicles are made in other countries rather than Valladolid or Mantorell.
Most of the southern countries lied about their level of sovereign debt just to join the euro. That level has now increased on average tenfold.
I WANT...
... anarchy...
it'll never happen, but when did we decide to become slaves to the ever failing system. I may be simple (and am often confused as such) but why not just print more money, lower the value of everything and learn to get along nicely...
otherwise, whats left for us poor plebs in 30 years that rely on pensions, whilst fat cats and politicians remain affluent....
pensioner anarchy i say, ha!
Exhausted of Tunbridge Wells.
With television channels repeating the same stories 24 hours a day, and the radio, and the internet, I think there's almost a subliminal hysteria permanent in the back of our minds caused by this constant barrage of information that ain't good for any of us at all. When I were a lad in the 70's the only time we had Breaking News, or a 'Newsflash', was when very serious incidents occurred i.e., an IRA bomb, not every ten minutes e.g. when the new line-up of Strictly Come Dancing is announced (seriously, that was a Breaking News story once). It used to make me nervous once every six months let alone every ten minutes as it is nowadays. Charlie Brooker said the problem with watching BBC Breaking News is you can't go to bed until everyone's died. Which is why I try not to watch it for too long and keep a sense of proportion about things. Going to lay down in a dark room now.
This is precisely why rolling news
is not a feature of my life, if I can avoid it. If there is something worth knowing you'll find out soon enough. I hate it when they have Sky News on in a pub. A pub should be in a state of grace...like the TARDIS.
True
If I want venal cretinous racist bloodthirsty ill-informed corrupt materialistic shite I don't need Sky I can talk to the regulars
why do so many public spaces have a TV
showing the news, but with the sound turned down?
BBC News Channel
Who was it who said that the only people who watch the BBC News Channel are men sitting on beds in hotel rooms waiting for their wives to finish in the bathroom so they can go for dinner?
So What
Even if the Euro goes tits up,it doesn't really matter, as some say the world will end in 2012 anyway!
Motives?
If your "anti-capitalism" the reality is that the only thing which will turn people off from the system that you seek to overthrow is financial collapse. Unfortunately the danger of financial collapse is nowhere near a big enough threat to turn anyone off the system.
The nightmare scenario is always there though, just waiting to come out; that there's a collapse, the pain and misery that goes with it inevitably arrives, and the capitalist system emerges smiling out of the other side, without any noticeable dents in it whatsoever. this is basically what has happened from 2008 onwards.
This socialist desire for a collapse in the system is quite different from the spectator fantasy that the OP seems to be experiencing though, which I can't find much justification for.
Let 'em fail
I wouldn't want to see us slip in to a major recession, no. However, I would have liked to have seen the government allowing one of the major banks to fail. Clearly the bail out did nothing. RBS and Lloyds both posted billion pound losses this week but bonuses are still being paid...
Yes
Because unless you are already wealthy and financially secure (like most of the cabinet) you are going to get stuffed. The victims will be everyday folks like you and me, who will lose jobs, lose houses, have to pay huge interest rates if they can borrow money at all, and will have services and pensions cut to reduce government debt in an effort to reassure the credit rating agencies.
If the big crash comes the bankers will be embarrassed, and maybe have to keep this years Aston Martin for two years. Loads of us will be hammered for years. Remember, when they banks foreclose they sell off the assets cheap to people who have money. So the rich will be able to buy our houses, businesses, antiques (whatever you have to sell) at rock bottom prices - and will still own them when the economy recovers. It will be a massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich.
Is that really amusing? It is disaster porn. Chaos is not fun unless you are "resiliant" which usually means rich and armed.
Sorry if I am being a bit strong. Having struggled through the past few years I really want the economy to recover, bank lending rates to come down (what they charge us, not the central rate), and house prices to stabilise. Then I might be able to sleep at night without worrying about keeping a roof over my family's head. The last thing I want is more financial chaos.
It is wrong, but
It is wrong, but it is an understandable feeling which is fed by the rolling news which, I think, de-personalises everything.
The 24-hour always promises but never, or hardly ever, delivers. It is always sensationalist. To keep viewers' attention it exaggerates the importance of every little thing and also spends a lot of time on disastrous what-if scenarios, and when their worst-case scenarios don't happen a part of you feels cheated.
You can see that when there is a disaster and in the first fart of reports there are predictions of 100s dead which then get scaled down and the presenters have to keep saying "but the body count might go up after police searches" and try not to sound too hopeful about it.
Plan B
Trouble is there isn't one. We old quasi-Marxists were initally gloating a bit, saying 'We told you so', but the reality is not exactly that we're in the same boat (there is no boat any more), but that we're over the side lashed to a psychopath who's holding the only buoyancy device and it's not able to support us both.
That is one heck of an elaboration of a metaphor ...
... but I don't have a clue what it means : - ).
Gecko Rules
It means that capitalism was always crap and now the wheels are coming off but what else have we got?
I am even more confused now ...
... the wheels have come off the boat.
So the boat must be some sort of Mississippi paddle steamer?
Yeee-harr!!
It's a fake
like the Word On The Water boat. It's got a paddle on it but it doesn't actually drive it along.
We're not -trying- to confuse you. Trust us.
Despite my OP,
I am writing as someone that has been directly affected by the crunch, in that I used to live in Spain for 5 years, up until a couple of years ago, and we had to return to the UK to find work again, and rent a property. Two years later and we are still in a rented house, and our 15 years worth of equity that we put into the house in Spain has virtually disappeared, and it is at the mercy of our Spanish bank, who would have repossessed it by now, except that there is something of a queue. The thing is, I'm not bitter, but we are taking a pragmatic approach to working and building again. To quote Jack and Diane - "starting from zero got nothing to lose"
And since the crash I have done more than most people I know to try and understand and learn about what went wrong. I have watch Capitalism a Love Story, Inside Job, The Ascent of Money, and read various books including The Big Short. Coupled with reading news stories and trying to get to grips with the economics of it, I consider myself better informed than most.
So, reconsidering my OP, perhaps I am looking for the big crash, the thing that finally means a radical rethink, and a change to the systems that I know understand a little more than I did before 2008. I don't think it can happen, as everything seems too intertwined, but the realisation of how much banks and governments can control populations through the supply of money, does make me feel like I want it all to come crashing down. The problem is, it is the people that are hit hardest, not the fuckers in charge.
I have similar thoughts...
...and the conclusion I keep arriving at is that the answer lies with China. Don't ask me what that means though.
When the western economies and banking system go tits up
then the Chinese will buy everything up for pennies at the bottom of the market. Five years later, China will have taken the place of the US as the dominant economic power in the world.
THE END IS NIGH!
The USA has been rated AA+ instead of AAA! WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!!
*confused face*
Obviously in spite of my spirited efforts trying to understand this nonsense (which involved trying to read books like John Lanchesters "Whoops" and a few others) I genuinely have no real idea of what all of this actually means, beyond "the tea party seem to be determined to wreck America don't they?"
*goes back to look at otters*
Schadenfreude is Good!
No it is not "wrong" - I mean, I have really enjoyed watching the shit hit the fan this past week, but that's because I'm not a have, I'm a have-not, so my delight is motivated by nothing more than class envy and financial envy.
On the other hand, it is wrong, because the people who are behind this mess will not be the ones most deeply affected; it'll be the "little guy". Again. But it may be the start of a new paradigm.
Hopefully this will spell the start of the end of the dominance of Thatcherite laissez faire monetarist policies that took over here, then the US, then the rest of West. The idea of self-regulating markets has been proven to be utter horse-shit.
In view of the fact
that since the events of 2008 it has been a constant day by day litany of failed businesses, job losses, cutbacks and countries going bust, I kind of figured that we were still experiencing the first crash, quite aside from staring into the face of another.
I sort of agree with the OP
I feel that there are people/institutions that trade on the back of our ignorance by betting correctly on currency movement, bonds and equity behaviour. They bet correctly because they operate with such large trading positions that they can influence markets by their actions. And then they become extremely rich, no matter what.
Trading conditions have been made so difficult to fathom that these actions are tantamount to insider trading - and at at the very least, unethical practice.
If we do plunge into a crisis, this might help us understand a bit more who is exploiting who (and how). Then we might get some Murdoch-like comeuppance to those that have been playing the rest of us like a fiddle for so long. There is an appetite for it.
Well.......
....you've got your chaos in Tottenham.
That has as much to do with financial deprivation as anything else.
I respectfully suggest ...
... it has more to do with idiots than with financial deprivation.
Idiots for sure....
.....but idiots without jobs and little legitimate way of earning a living.
Hence: the short term manifestation of looting.
And the long term, and far, far more insidious crime (it's brought many parts of London to its knees) of drug dealing and drug taking.